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Bitcoin Forecast Shows Decline, What Should You Do?

As we know, in mid-April the price of Bitcoin had penetrated its all-time high by breaking the level of US$63,000. But unfortunately, the price then dropped sharply to the range of US$47,000 on April 26.

According to a trusted Bitcoin forecast who has a year-end target price of US$100,000 for Bitcoin, this is a good thing. A "healthy" weakness is considered to be able to really strengthen the footing for the bullish trend later.

"We don't see this as something that brought us to the top of the market in 2017. But more as something where the market needs to have a healthy cooling period before the market can continue to advance," said Fundstrat's lead digital asset strategist David Grider. He referred to the peak situation in 2017 which continued to an 80% price collapse thereafter.

Bitcoin prices are still in instability where price movements fluctuate after setting a record high. At times like this, you may be curious, what is the right way to analyze Bitcoin prices?

Crypto asset traders or investors definitely use fundamental and technical analysis more often to see trends and patterns of Bitcoin price movements. No wonder, if we often see indicators such as support, resistance, and the Relative Strength Index in the analysis or news about crypto assets.

However, it turns out that crypto-asset analysis is not limited to those two analyzes. The crypto asset world is familiar with an analytical term called on-chain which provides an in-depth look at the health of the network and the flow of funds in the crypto market. This analysis sometimes provides a different view of the condition of the crypto-asset market, which can even contradict the results of fundamental and technical analysis.

A concrete example occurred in mid-April. Bitcoin price suddenly slumped to near US$50,000 from near US$60,000 after there was a mass blackout in China's Xinjiang province. Namely, the area where most Bitcoin miners nest.

An investor who has no insight into on-chain analysis is likely to panic sell his assets during these times. However, according to on-chain analysis, the massive liquidation of over-leveraged traders in those days was a positive for the Bitcoin network. The over-leveraged traders are traders who usually buy assets in large quantities, but with minimal capital.

Also, the on-chain analysis combined with technical analysis shows that now is your opportunity to buy the dip. Or, hoarding crypto assets when their values ​​are low.

The Mayer Multiple is a technical indicator that also determines whether Bitcoin is overbought (overbought), oversold (oversold), or reasonably priced. This method divides the price of Bitcoin by the 200-day average of its price movement.

Trace Mayer, the investor who first proposed the model, determined that values ​​above 2.4 in some areas signalled too high a value. Meanwhile, a value below 1 signals highly undervalued territory (below the original value) as the price dips below the 200-day moving average.

Willy Woo created the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio in 2017. This ratio divides Bitcoin's market cap by its daily volume within the network